The Oscars 2024: A Year of Unpredictable Races and Surprising Contenders

The 2024 Oscar race has been nothing short of a political thriller, mirroring the intricate power struggles depicted in Edward Berger’s Conclave. Just as the film explores the machinations of papal elections, this year’s competition for Best Picture has seen frontrunners rise and fall, leaving the industry on edge. While some clarity has emerged in recent weeks—largely due to Sean Baker’s Anora racking up major wins at the Producers Guild and Directors Guild Awards—the race remains far from settled. With the Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA awards still pending, the final stretch to the Dolby Theatre on March 2 could be as nail-biting as a papal conclave.

The Frontrunners: Anora Leads the Pack, But Nothing Is Certain

As of now, Anora is the clear frontrunner for Best Picture, thanks to its victories at the Producers Guild and Directors Guild Awards. Both organizations have long track records of predicting Oscar winners, and Anora has capitalized on this momentum. Sean Baker’s film, a sly and devastating twist on a Pretty Woman-like fable, has resonated with critics and voters alike. But history reminds us that even the most decorated films can stumble. Just five years ago, 1917 had a similar trajectory before being upset by Parasite. Anora, however, also boasts the prestige of a Palme d’Or win at Cannes, giving it an edge with the Academy’s increasingly international voters.

Dark Horses and Wildcards: Films That Could Pull Off an Upset

While Anora may be the favorite, the race remains wide open, with several films still in contention. RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys is a cinematic masterpiece that redefined filmic grammar, though its Best Picture chances are slim. Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, despite its technical brilliance, faces the sequel curse that often hampers follow-ups at the Oscars. Meanwhile, Walter Salles’s I’m Still Here has emerged as a dark horse, thanks to its box-office success in Brazil and its powerful portrayal of political resistance. Though unlikely to win Best Picture, it could pull off an upset in the Best International Film category.

Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance has also defied expectations, earning five nominations and becoming a legitimate contender in the Best Actress race for Demi Moore. Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, once a strong frontrunner, has faced a precipitous fall from grace due to a scandal involving its star, though it still holds onto hope with 13 nominations. Jon M. Chu’s Wicked remains a crowd-pleaser, but its lack of a directing nomination and its overshadowing by Emilia Pérez on the awards circuit have dimmed its prospects.

The Top Contenders: Conclave, A Complete Unknown, and The Brutalist

Edward Berger’s Conclave has emerged as the “Everyone Likes It” contender, with its masterful storytelling and widespread critical acclaim. Though Berger missed out on a directing nomination, the preferential ballot system could work in its favor, especially if it secures a BAFTA win. James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown, a widely admired Bob Dylan biopic, could also pull off an upset, buoyed by Timothée Chalamet’s star power and the film’s cultural relevance. With Searchlight Pictures’ track record of steering Best Picture winners, A Complete Unknown is a force to be reckoned with.

Until recently, Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist was the film to beat, thanks to its Venice and Golden Globes victories, as well as its whopping 10 Oscar nominations. Hailed as a visionary masterpiece, the film’s ambitious scope and low budget have made it a standout. However, its three-and-a-half-hour runtime could deter some voters, and its second-half stumble might cost it crucial votes.

The Final Stretch: Momentum and Last-Minute Surprises

In a year where no film has maintained a ironclad lead, momentum is everything. Anora’s recent wins have solidified its position, but the Screen Actors Guild awards could be the deciding factor. If it sweeps there, the race may be all but over. However, the unpredictability of this year’s race leaves room for surprises. Films like Conclave or A Complete Unknown could rise at the last minute, especially given the Academy’s preferential voting system, which rewards films that appear on a large number of ballots.

Ultimately, this year’s Oscars are not just about predicting winners—they’re about celebrating the diversity and creativity of cinema in 2023. Whether Anora maintains its lead or an underdog pulls off a shocker, the race serves as a reminder of the magic and unpredictability of Hollywood’s biggest night.