Flu Surpasses COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S. for the First Time Since the Pandemic Began

For the first time since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenza has surpassed COVID-19 as the leading cause of death in the United States. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), during the week ending on January 25, nearly 1.7% of all deaths nationwide were attributed to the flu, while approximately 1.5% were due to COVID-19. This marks a significant shift in the mortality landscape, as COVID-19 has dominated death rates since early 2020. The CDC’s weekly data highlights a record-breaking flu season, with hospitalization rates for influenza currently more than three times higher than those for COVID-19.

The surge in flu-related deaths and hospitalizations has caught the attention of health officials, who are urging Americans to take precautions. Partial data suggests that by the week ending on February 1, influenza deaths may have risen to as high as 2% of all deaths, further widening the gap over COVID-19, which remains at around 1.5%. The CDC emphasizes that while these numbers are preliminary, they underscore the severity of this year’s flu season, which has already exceeded the total influenza deaths reported for the entire 2023-2024 season.

Rising Flu Hospitalizations and Regional Trends

The flu’s impact is not only reflected in mortality rates but also in hospitalization trends. As of late January, the rate of flu-related hospitalizations is more than three times higher than that of COVID-19, signaling a particularly severe season. This surge has been felt across the country, with 22 states reporting that flu deaths have outpaced COVID-19 deaths over the first five weeks of 2025. The gap is most pronounced in states like California, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, and Wyoming, where weekly flu deaths are at least double those from COVID-19.

Health officials are closely monitoring these trends, noting that the percentage of weekly deaths attributed to each illness serves as an early indicator of broader patterns. Since death reporting can lag by several weeks, these figures provide critical insights into the unfolding public health situation. The CDC’s modelers estimate that between 13,000 and 65,000 flu-related deaths have occurred so far this season, a range that already surpasses the total influenza deaths reported for the 2023-2024 season. In contrast, COVID-19 deaths this winter are estimated to be between 18,000 and 31,000, reflecting a smaller wave compared to previous years.

The COVID-19 Landscape: A Smaller Wave and Vaccine Success

While influenza is currently dominating mortality rates, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, albeit in a less severe form this winter. Unlike previous waves, no highly mutated variant of the virus has emerged to drive a major surge in infections. Additionally, vaccination rates, particularly among older adults who are more vulnerable to severe disease, have outpaced those of previous seasons. These factors have contributed to a smaller COVID-19 wave, with emergency room visits and hospitalizations significantly lower than in earlier years.

The CDC attributes the relatively mild COVID-19 season to a combination of widespread immunity from prior infections and vaccinations, as well as the absence of a highly transmissible new variant. However, health officials remain vigilant, as the virus continues to circulate and newer variants could still emerge. For now, the focus has shifted to addressing the record-breaking flu season, which has reached levels not seen since the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

The Flu Crisis: High Activity and Lagging Vaccinations

The flu season has reached alarming levels, with the CDC reporting “very high” influenza activity in 33 states and the District of Columbia as of mid-February. This surge has been fueled by a combination of factors, including the circulating flu viruses and the population’s immunity from prior infections and vaccinations. The CDC warns that flu activity remains elevated and is likely to increase further, as the season typically peaks in late winter or early spring.

Despite the severity of the season, vaccination rates for the flu have lagged in some groups, particularly among children. CDC data shows that less than 45% of children in the U.S. have received a flu shot this season, down from more than 58% at the same time in 2020. This decline in vaccination coverage has raised concerns among health officials, who stress the importance of protecting vulnerable populations, including children, older adults, and those with underlying health conditions.

Urgent Calls for Vaccination and Preparedness

In response to the escalating flu crisis, the CDC has issued urgent calls for Americans to get vaccinated if they have not already done so. “Foremost, anyone who has not been vaccinated for flu this season should get vaccinated immediately,” said CDC spokesperson Dr. Paul Prince in a February 10 statement. “Flu activity remains elevated and continues to increase across the country.”

Dr. Prince highlighted that several factors can influence flu activity, including the specific strains of the virus in circulation and the level of immunity within the population. While it is difficult to predict the exact severity of a flu season, the current data suggests that the U.S. is in the midst of an unusually severe one. “It is expected to see flu activity elevated and increasing at this time of the year,” Dr. Prince noted, emphasizing the need for vigilance and proactive measures to curb the spread of the virus.

Conclusion: A Critical Moment for Public Health

As the U.S. navigates this unprecedented flu season, the CDC and health officials are urging Americans to remain vigilant and take steps to protect themselves and their communities. While the decline in COVID-19 deaths is a welcome development, the surge in flu-related illnesses and deaths serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing challenges posed by respiratory viruses.

The data underscores the importance of vaccination, particularly for influenza, as a critical tool in reducing the burden of preventable illnesses. By staying informed, getting vaccinated, and practicing preventive measures, individuals can play a crucial role in mitigating the impact of both the flu and COVID-19 during this critical period. As the flu season continues to unfold, the focus will remain on saving lives and reducing the strain on an already overwhelmed healthcare system.