Why Gas Prices Will Stay High: What American Drivers Need to Know

Recent Relief at the Pump May Be Short-Lived

If you’ve noticed gas prices dipping slightly below $4 per gallon recently, you might feel a momentary sense of relief. Unfortunately, that relief is likely to be temporary. According to leading economists and energy experts, American drivers shouldn’t expect fuel costs to return to pre-conflict levels anytime soon—and certainly not to the $2.98 per gallon we were paying before the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran back in February. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has made it clear that barring a major economic shock like a recession, gas prices won’t fall below $3 per gallon this year. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, Zandi predicts prices will settle around $3.50 per gallon by the end of the year. The conflict with Iran has dramatically disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically critical waterway that handles a significant portion of the world’s oil supply. This disruption sent gas prices soaring to a recent high of $4.17 per gallon on April 9. As of Tuesday, the national average stood at $4.02—more than a dollar higher than before the conflict began. For millions of Americans who depend on their vehicles for work, family obligations, and daily life, this increase represents a substantial and persistent burden on household budgets.

The “Rockets and Feathers” Effect: Why Prices Rise Fast but Fall Slowly

One of the most frustrating aspects of gas price volatility is what economists call the “rockets and feathers” principle. This phenomenon describes how fuel costs shoot up rapidly when crude oil prices spike—like a rocket taking off—but drift down slowly when oil prices fall, like a feather floating to the ground. For everyday drivers, this means you feel the pain of price increases almost immediately at the pump, but the benefits of falling oil prices take much longer to reach you. This asymmetry isn’t just bad luck; it reflects the complex economics of the fuel supply chain, including factors like refinery costs, distribution logistics, and retailer pricing strategies. The current situation with Iran has created particularly challenging conditions for oil markets. Zandi estimates that it will take months, if not years, for the global oil supply to fully rebound due to the extensive damage inflicted on oil infrastructure across the Middle East. The uncertainty surrounding when the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen compounds the problem. Even when the conflict eventually ends, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels because the heightened risks of transporting oil through the strait will persist, influencing insurance costs, shipping routes, and overall market confidence. For American consumers, this translates to elevated fuel prices that will stick around long after news of the conflict fades from headlines.

Conflicting Predictions from Energy Experts and Government Officials

The timeline for when gas prices might return to more affordable levels has become a subject of debate among experts and government officials, with predictions ranging from cautiously optimistic to deeply uncertain. Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy, suggests that if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen soon—perhaps by late October, November, or December—the national average could potentially fall below $3 per gallon. However, he’s quick to emphasize that such an outcome is far from guaranteed, given the numerous variables at play in global oil markets. Energy Secretary Chris Wright offered a similarly uncertain forecast during a CNN interview, saying that prices could drop below $3 per gallon “later this year” or possibly not until next year. Interestingly, President Trump publicly contradicted his own energy secretary, telling The Hill that Wright was “wrong” about the timeline. Trump insisted that gas prices will drop “as soon as this ends,” referring to the Iran conflict. This divergence in messaging from within the administration highlights the genuine uncertainty surrounding fuel price forecasts and the complex interplay of geopolitical, economic, and market forces that determine what we pay at the pump. For ordinary Americans trying to budget for the months ahead, these conflicting messages offer little comfort or clarity about when meaningful relief might arrive.

The Risk of Prices Going Even Higher

While some experts believe we’ve seen the peak of gas price increases, others warn that prices could climb even higher in the coming months. De Haan from GasBuddy cautions that continuing volatility in oil prices creates significant risk for another surge at the pump. A dramatic example of this volatility occurred recently when oil prices fell by approximately 10% on Friday after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open,” only to rise again when tensions with the United States flared up over the weekend. This kind of whiplash in oil markets makes it extremely difficult to predict short-term price movements with any confidence. De Haan also points to specific threats that could trigger price spikes, particularly if President Trump follows through on threats to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure. The president stated on Sunday that the U.S. would “knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge” if Iran doesn’t agree to a peace deal. Such actions would almost certainly escalate the conflict and further disrupt oil markets. “I don’t think the saga between the U.S. and Iran is going to end anytime soon,” De Haan observed. “So to say that prices have peaked, I mean, I’d like to agree, but I think that might still be wishful thinking.” Additionally, hurricane season, which runs from June through November, typically brings its own fuel price fluctuations due to disruptions to Gulf Coast refineries and distribution networks. Gregory Brew, an energy analyst with the Eurasia Group, shares these concerns and believes gas prices will “likely rise as demand rises moving into the summer,” when Americans traditionally drive more for vacations and outdoor activities.

Lower-Income Americans Bear the Heaviest Burden

The impact of higher gas prices doesn’t fall equally on all Americans. Research from Goldman Sachs reveals that elevated fuel costs disproportionately burden the bottom 20% of income earners in the United States. Compared with the wealthiest 20% of households, poorer families spend roughly four times as much of their after-tax income on gasoline. This disparity means that while wealthy Americans might grumble about paying more at the pump, lower-income families face genuinely difficult choices between filling their gas tanks and meeting other essential needs like groceries, utilities, or medical care. For many working-class Americans, driving isn’t optional—it’s the only way to get to work, take children to school, or access healthcare and other services. Public transportation alternatives simply don’t exist in many parts of the country, particularly in rural areas and suburban communities designed around automobile use. The financial strain extends beyond just the direct cost of fuel. Higher gas prices ripple through the economy, increasing the cost of goods that must be transported, from food to clothing to household essentials. Another sobering analysis from economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research estimates that the average U.S. household will spend an additional $740 on gas this year due to higher oil prices stemming from the Iran conflict. To put this in perspective, the average tax refund this year is $3,397, up about $350 from 2025 according to IRS data. This means the increased gas costs could wipe out more than twice the gain from larger tax refunds that Americans received as a result of last year’s tax legislation. For families who were counting on those refunds to pay down debt, make necessary purchases, or build emergency savings, the erosion of that benefit by higher fuel costs represents a significant setback.

Looking Ahead: Navigating Uncertain Times at the Pump

As we move through the remainder of the year, American drivers face a frustrating reality: gas prices will likely remain elevated, volatile, and unpredictable. The best-case scenarios still involve prices settling significantly higher than what we paid before the Iran conflict began, and worst-case scenarios could see additional spikes if geopolitical tensions escalate further or if hurricane season brings significant disruptions to domestic energy infrastructure. For individuals and families, this situation calls for practical adjustments to household budgets and, where possible, changes in driving habits. Combining trips, carpooling, working from home when feasible, and maintaining vehicles for optimal fuel efficiency can all help mitigate the impact of higher prices. Some families might consider whether a more fuel-efficient vehicle makes financial sense, though the upfront costs of such a change must be weighed carefully against potential savings. From a broader economic perspective, persistently high gas prices could dampen consumer spending in other areas, potentially slowing economic growth. The Federal Reserve and policymakers will be watching fuel prices closely as they make decisions about interest rates and economic policy. For politicians, gas prices remain a highly visible and politically sensitive issue that influences public opinion and voter sentiment. Ultimately, the path forward for gas prices remains deeply intertwined with geopolitical developments that are difficult to predict—the course of the Iran conflict, the security situation in the Middle East, decisions by oil-producing nations, and even domestic factors like hurricane activity and refinery operations. While we all hope for a swift return to more affordable fuel costs, the evidence suggests that patience and preparation for continued elevated prices represent the most realistic approach for American drivers in the months ahead.