The Kremlin is deliberately slowing down peace negotiations with Ukraine while preparing for a long and drawn-out war, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russia continues to threaten to escalate the conflict and hints at the use of new weapons. Experts say Moscow’s goal remains the full surrender of Ukraine without any compromise.
Recent talks in Istanbul showed that Russia demands territorial concessions as conditions for a ceasefire, rather than as topics for real peace negotiations. The ISW says Russia tries to appear open to dialogue but only issues demands that Ukraine cannot accept.
Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin seems determined to refuse compromises until Ukraine and its Western allies change his belief that Russia can win a war of attrition through slow advances that stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations. The war is likely to continue for a long time, with the Kremlin using talks to delay real progress while pushing on the battlefield.
Opposition sources report that Putin has no plans to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy personally, knowing that Russia’s demands are unacceptable. Moscow insists on direct talks without intermediaries, aiming to control the terms and force the US to limit support for Ukraine from other Western countries. The ISW says Russia wants to stretch out negotiations to gain more battlefield advantages and force more concessions from the West.
Ukraine has shown a willingness to compromise and negotiate in good faith, but Russia’s demands remain firm and extreme. Russian officials have warned that if Ukraine and Washington refuse these demands, the war could escalate. Dmitry Medvedev, head of Russia’s Security Council, said a failure in talks might lead to a worse phase of the war with new weapons and more countries involved. Experts see this as a veiled threat of nuclear weapons or attacks on European nations, though they assess that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear arms or attack NATO members at this time.
Russia continues to deny the legitimacy of Ukraine’s government and demands to know which Ukrainian officials would sign any peace deal. This suggests Russia may reject future agreements unless it can impose a pro-Russian government on Ukraine. The ISW stresses that any peace deal must clearly include Russia’s recognition of Ukraine’s government and constitution.
On May 16, another round of talks took place in Istanbul. Russia repeated its demand for territorial concessions, which Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry called unacceptable. Following the talks, former US President Donald Trump said no progress in peace is possible without a personal meeting with Putin.
